The crisis in Iran has triggered a significant policy shift in Europe, with Italy leading the charge to proscribe the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist entity. This move represents a breakdown in the “third-way” diplomacy Europe has traditionally pursued. Now, the West appears to be moving in lockstep toward a strategy of maximum pressure and potential military intervention.
The Iranian government is bracing for this unified front by issuing stern warnings to the international community. Foreign Ministry officials have stated that any violation of international principles will lead to widespread regional insecurity. This is widely interpreted as a threat to target global shipping and oil interests if the US-led strike goes forward.
While regional powers like the UAE have distanced themselves from a direct attack, the US deployment in the Mediterranean proves that Washington is prepared to act with or without local support. The ability to project power across the region from international waters has left the Iranian leadership with few diplomatic or tactical options to prevent an engagement.
The humanitarian situation is also drawing global condemnation. Reports of families being charged ransoms for the bodies of protesters have shocked the international community and provided further justification for those calling for regime change. The UN’s inability to stop the violence has only strengthened the argument for a military solution to the crisis.
As the 12-day war in June showed, Iran’s infrastructure is already vulnerable. However, the next phase of this conflict is expected to be far more personal, targeting the political leadership itself. The Iranian government is now in a race against time to shore up its defenses before the US military exercise transitions into a live operation.
EU Hardens Stance as Iranian Government Braces for US-Israeli “Regime Change” Strike
