As international rice prices begin to recover, Vietnam anticipates a boost in the value of its rice exports in the closing months of 2026. By mid-August, the nation had exported an estimated 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with projections for the entire year reaching around 7.7 million tonnes. Although export earnings are expected to hit approximately US$3.9 billion, this would mark a 4% decline from the previous year due to subdued prices during the year’s first half. Encouragingly, rice prices saw a 5.8% year-on-year increase starting in July. Should this upward trend persist, Vietnam could see enhanced export revenues in the months ahead.
Global market dynamics may further support Vietnam’s rice exports. For the 2026-27 crop year, the world is projected to experience a rice supply-demand deficit, alongside potential record-high global trade levels. Concerns about a strong El Niño could prompt countries to bolster their food reserves. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest buyer of rice, intends to import approximately 5.6 million tonnes during the 2026-27 season. Additionally, China is ramping up rice imports, particularly of broken rice for animal feed, presenting more opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Other international markets are also opening up potential for growth. Nigeria anticipates a significant gap in rice supply, while Kenya has temporarily removed import duties on white rice through a quota system. Vietnamese exporters are capitalizing on opportunities in premium markets, with high-quality and low-emission certified rice fetching prices exceeding US$1,000 per tonne in regions such as Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite these promising developments, Vietnam’s rice sector faces several hurdles. The Philippines is contemplating additional safeguard duties on rice from Vietnam, which could increase the combined tariff to over 35%, impacting Vietnam’s shipments to its primary market. Indonesia, on the other hand, is unlikely to import rice this year, citing robust domestic production and high reserves. Vietnamese rice is also competing against lower-priced options from India and Pakistan in various African markets. Meanwhile, Thailand is expanding its market share in China, and Cambodia is boosting its exports of fragrant rice, adding further competition for Vietnamese suppliers.
Moreover, high costs for fertilizers, transportation, and energy are mounting pressure on both farmers and exporters. The looming threat of El Niño could lead to drought and saltwater intrusion between late 2026 and early 2027, potentially impacting the upcoming winter-spring rice crop. Although Vietnam could see an improvement in export earnings due to recovering prices and increased demand for premium rice, tariffs, competition, and weather-related risks remain significant challenges.